The aim of this paper is to develop a model for estimating the urban logistics improvements potential based on success factors of intermodal urban transport. There were two aspects considered for building the urban logistics time efficiency model: achieving an improved transport capacity without purchasing new vehicles, and transferring responsibility of poor shipment planning to its owners by implementing the intermodal transport success factors. The model is to establish functional relationship among the shipment distribution requests (urbanization) and urban logistics inefficiencies management (market inconsistencies), and their impact on business operations. The applicability of the proposed model was tested on urban population growth data and time inefficiencies in urban distribution. The results provide both theoretical and practical confirmation of time efficiency importance of urban logistics and potential for introduction of new intermodal solutions in urban logistics. Different case scenarios for Sarajevo prove that reducing inefficiencies in urban logistics could reduce the number of delivery vehicles by less than a half. Since the delivery vehicles are sources of pollution, the subsequent conclusion is valid for externalities levels. The model, therefore, complements the existing knowledge and represents a practical tool for urban planners and logistics professionals for creating an efficient, innovative, and integrative approach to the development of urban logistics services.
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