Junzhuo Li, Wenyong Li, Guan Lian

Data-driven forecasting methods have the problems of complex calculations, poor portability and need a large amount of training data, which limits the application of data-driven methods in small cities. This paper proposes a traffic flow forecasting method using a Nonlinear AutoRegressive model with eXogenous variables (NARX model), which uses a dynamic neural network Focused Time-Delay Neural Network (FTDNN) with a Tapped Delay Line (TDL) structure as a nonlinear function. The TDL structure enables the FTDNN to have short-term memory capabilities. At the same time, before the data is input into the FTDNN, the use of trend decomposition or differential calculation on the traffic data sequence can make the NARX model maintain long-term predictive capabilities. Compared with common nonlinear models, the FTDNN has structural advantages. It uses a simple TDL structure without the memory mechanism and the gated structure, which can reduce the parameters of the model and reduce the scale of data. Through the four-day data of Guilin City, the traffic volume forecast for five minutes is verified, and the performance of the NARX model is better than that of the SARIMA model and the Holt-Winters model.

2022 (Vol 34), Issue 6

Marko Orošnjak, Mitar Jocanović, Branka Gvozdenac-Urošević, Dragoljub Šević, Ljubica Duđak, Velibor Karanović

The research on Bus Fleet Management (BFM) has undergone significant changes. It is unclear whether these changes are accepted as technological change or as a paradigm shift. Perhaps unintentionally, BFM is still perceived as routing and scheduling by some, and by others as maintenance and replacement strategy. Therefore, the authors conducted a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) to overview the existing concepts and school of thoughts about how stakeholders perceive the BFM. The SLR post-study exposed that BFM should be acknowledged as a multi-realm system rather than a uniform dimension of fulfilling timely service. Nonetheless, the work encapsulates BFM evolution which shows the need for the multi-realm research abstracted as "Bus Fleet Mobility Management" and "Bus Fleet Asset Management". The difficulties of transport agencies and their ability to switch from conventional to Zero-Emission Buses (ZEBs) illustrates why we propose such an agenda, by which the research is validated through needs both in academia and in practice.

2020 (Vol 32), Issue 6

Emma Strömblad, Lena Winslott Hiselius, Lena Smidfelt Rosqvist, Helena Svensson

In search for measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from transport, insights into the characteristics of all sorts of trips and specifically trips by car are needed. This paper focuses on everyday leisure trips for social and recreational purposes. Travel behaviour for these purposes is analysed considering individual and household factors as well as properties of the trip, based on Swedish national travel survey data. The analysis reveals that everyday leisure trips are often of joint character and that the average distance travelled per person and day increases with, for example, income, cohabitation, children in the household and residence in rural areas. The result also shows that the studied characteristics vary between studied trip purposes, influencing the sustainability potential of a reduction in car use and suggested measures. For instance, the largest share of passenger mileage comes from social trips, whereas trips for exercise and outdoor life have the largest share of car trips below 5 km. Several characteristics indicate difficulties in transferring trips by car to, for example, bicycle or public transport due to convenience, economy, start times, company etc. The study indicates that there is a need to take a broader view of the effective potential.

2022 (Vol 34), Issue 4

The purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of land use, built environment and public transportation facilities’ locations on destinations of bike-sharing trips in an urban setting. Several methods have been applied to determine the relationship between predicting variables and trip destinations, such as ordinary least squares regression, spatial regression and geographically weighted regression. Additionally, a comparison between the proposed models, count models and random forest has been conducted. The data were collected in Budapest, Hungary. It has been found that touristic points of interest, and healthcare and educational points have a positive impact on bike-sharing destinations. Public transportation stops for buses, trains and trams attract bike-sharing users, which has a potential for the bike-and-ride system. Land use has different effects on bike-sharing trip destinations; mostly as a circular shape variation within the urban structure of the city, such as residential, industrial, commercial and educational zones. Other variables, such as road length and water areas, form as constraints to bike-sharing trip destinations. Geographically weighted and spatial regression performs better than count models and random forest. This study helps decision-makers in predicting the origin-destination matrix of bike-sharing trips based on the transportation network and land use.

2023 (Vol 35), Issue 1

Meixian Jiang, Guoxing Wu, Jianpeng Zheng, Guanghua Wu

This paper constructs a berth-quay crane capacity planning model with the lowest average daily cost in the container terminal, and analyzes the influence of the number of berths and quay cranes on the terminal operation. The object of berth-quay crane capacity planning is to optimize the number of berths and quay cranes to maximize the benefits of the container terminal. A steady state probability transfer model based on Markov chain for container terminal is constructed by the historical time series of the queuing process. The current minimum time operation principle (MTOP) strategy is proposed to correct the state transition probability of the Markov chain due to the characteristics of the quay crane movement to change the service capacity of a single berth. The solution error is reduced from 7.03% to 0.65% compared to the queuing theory without considering the quay crane movement, which provides a basis for the accurate solution of the berth-quay crane capacity planning model. The proposed berth-quay crane capacity planning model is validated by two container terminal examples, and the results show that the model can greatly guide the container terminal berth-quay crane planning.

2021 (Vol 33), Issue 2

Snežana Tadić, Mladen Krstić, Milovan Kovač, Nikolina Brnjac

The negative effects of goods flows realisation are most visible in urban areas as the places of the greatest concentration of economic and social activities. The main goals of this article were to identify the applicable Industry 4.0 technologies for performing various city logistics (CL) operations, establish smart sustainable CL solutions (SSCL) and rank them in order to identify those which will serve as the base points for future plans and strategies for the development of smart cities. This kind of problem requires involvement of multiple stakeholders with their opposing goals and interests, and thus multiple criteria. For solving it, this article proposed a novel hybrid multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model, based on BWM (Best-Worst Method) and CODAS (COmbinative Distance-based ASsessment) methods in grey environment. The results of the model application imply that the potentially best SSCL solution is based on the combination of the concepts of micro-consolidation centres and autonomous vehicles with the support of artificial intelligence and Internet of Things technologies. The main contributions of the article are the definition of original SSCLs, the creation of a framework and definition of criteria for their evaluation and the development of a novel hybrid MCDM model.

2022 (Vol 34), Issue 5