Forecasting the All-Weather Short-Term Metro Passenger Flow Based on Seasonal and Nonlinear LSSVM

Xin Huang
School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology

Yimin Wang
School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology

Peiqun Lin
School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology

Heng Yu
School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology

Yue Luo
School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology

Abstract

Accurate metro ridership prediction can guide passengers in efficiently selecting their departure time and simultaneously help traffic operators develop a passenger organization strategy. However, short-term passenger flow prediction needs to consider many factors, and the results of the existing models for short-term subway passenger flow forecasting are often unsatisfactory. Along this line, we propose a parallel architecture, called the seasonal and nonlinear least squares support vector machine (SN-LSSVM), to extract the periodicity and nonlinearity characteristics of passenger flow. Various forecasting models, including auto-regressive integrated moving average, long short-term memory network, and support vector machine, are employed for evaluating the performance of the proposed architecture. Moreover, we first applied the method to the Tiyu Xilu station which is the most crowded station in the Guangzhou metro. The results indicate that the proposed model can effectively make all-weather and year-round passenger flow predictions, thus contributing to the management of the station.